Evaluation and Simulation of Seismic Event Risk for Reinforced Concrete Railway Viaducts
By Hiromichi Yoshikawa, Yuko Wakabayashi, Masaki Tsubota and Takeshi Ohtaki

Concrete Research and Technology
Vol.22, No.1, Jan 2011 (Issue 55)

The present paper proposed the evaluation procedure of seismic risks, which consists of Phase I : seismic hazard analysis, Phase II : ground motion at site, Phase III : capacity spectrum method, Phase IV : seismic vulnerability and fragility analysis and Phase V : seismic event risk analysis. Among these phases, capacity spectrum method and event-flag matrix method are featured in our proposed procedure. Simulations of event risk assessment for two types of reinforced concrete railway viaducts designed by old and present specifications were conducted. Then, major risk indices such as NEL, PML, AEL, and event risk curves are figured out and carefully discussed. It is concluded that these calculated results reflect the directions of railway viaducts as differences of seismic performance due to differences of design specifications.
seismic hazard analysis, seismic event risk curve, scenario earthquake, reinforced concrete railway viaduct, capacity spectrum method, event-flag matrix method, normal expected loss, provable maximum loss, business continuity plan

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